China vs USA: The next World War?

[Tripitaka of AA]

An article by Max Hastings, former Editor of several UK national daily papers, which pulls together some relative developments and opinion to paint a rather scary picture of the future. China is growing in military might, economic power, hunger for resources and global influence... but has apparently got relatively few scruples or reluctance to use their power when they feel the need. The suggestion is that while US and UN decisions are often guarded and carefully developed to ensure support of the countries' populations, Chinese Leaders feel no qualms about such matters. Greed and profit without mercy or charity.

Like I said.. scary.

[Jonathan Randall]

If they are rational - and this is a big if given their own internal instabilities - why would they wish to engage the West in a shooting war when we are already busy doing ourselves in? In other words, they are already winning. If they bide their time, the apple will fall from the tree into their laps.

[Erik]

They won't try tinting us. It would ruin their economy as they and we are far too interdependent.

If thoy can base their economy on another market, like India or SE Asia, then they'll have more options. But for now there will be no chance for USA/China shooting at each other. No chance at all.

[David Craik]

We are of far more value to the Chinese as consumers rather than subjects. Wal-Mart alone ranks above nearly any non-US country in terms of Chinese goods imported.

[Don Roley]

I don't think all wars have to be one of conquest.

If the Chinese put a blockade around Taiwan, not letting any food or anything else in or out until they cave in and let Beijing rule them, that is another matter.

For one, the Chinese would use public opinion in the US to not interfere in an 'internal' squabble.

If the US Navy tries to break the blockade, there will be shoots fired, but also pressure through the puppets in places like the UN for the US to back off and return things like trade back to normal.

Then, when Taiwan has become part of the PRC, the message the rest of Asia will get will be one that they can't rely on the US to back them and when China orders them to vote a certain way in the UN, they will comply.

So yes, I can see violence being used but not a war of conquest in the next few decades. The situation might change by then. Eventually, one way or another China (I believe) wants to get back to where the entire known world looks to them for governance. There is even a name for this, the 'middle kingdom syndrome.'

[Jonathan Randall]

We are of far more value to the Chinese as consumers rather than subjects. Wal-Mart alone ranks above nearly any non-US country in terms of Chinese goods imported.

Very true, but of course, countries do not always behave rationally. Old men used to privilege, who find their grip on power loosening, often start destructive and/or unwinnable wars to rally their people. China is racked by peasant revolts every few generations or so and they are overdue for one now.

[Erik]

"Nation states behave as unitary actors rationally pursuing their national self-interest which is defined as power. Anyone recognize this quote? (I don't agree with it per the reasons stated above but this quote is the center of pol-sci international relations).